I signed off from a few Facebook pages at the start of January. This was part of my 'be good to yourself' New Year resolution. They were all political websites and I'd got tired of the same people replying to any political comment, not with arguments against or for anything that had been written, but just with insults such as saying sh*tebag, w*nker and f*ck to anyone who tried to argue. Like a few other people, I did try to argue for open discussion and maybe a bit of tolerance or to at least stop calling No voters 'yoons' - and then gave up. For me, the crunch was being harangued by a small group of vegans. I'm willing to support people in their ethical aims but then I wondered is this really more important than getting independence? When I wished everyone well and said cheerio in January, my decision to leave these FB pages also met with a few personal insults and that persuaded me I was right to get out.
It also confirmed for me that something has gone far wrong with the Scottish independence cause - because that's what all of these FB pages were about.
If you think the Yes campaign is ready to go once a date is set for a second independence referendum, then you should leave this blog page right now. Because I think we're in trouble and I'm going to say why.
Money - the Yes campaign has none. The Yes campaign had very little cash in 2014 and now we've got even less. Is anyone filling the coffers? Does anyone have an idea of how to fill the coffers? The Unionists do. They already have a stash of cash. Not to mention people with a background in PR and media, who will be able to flood the newspapers and TV with fake news - just as they did in 2014. Do the Yes people have any idea how to counter this? Yes has a loud voice on social media (Facebook and twitter) but the No campaign still has all but 2 newspapers onside. And a lot of people still read newspapers in Scotland.
No Voters - we know who the Yes people are and we have a good idea of how to spur them into action, but do we know anything about the people who voted no in 2014? Do we just pretend they're not there or hope we can talk them round when the next referendum is announced? Or are we conducting online polls to find out how people feel about independence - how they think it will affect them, and how we can help persuade them? In other words, do we have a strategy? Of course, there are No voters we can never talk round but do we have an idea about the people we might be able to persuade? Do we know how many people have shifted to Yes since 2014 by themselves after looking around at what's happening in the UK right now? Especially given what's happening in Northern Ireland over the open border, not to mention the fact that Westminster has taken back a lot of powers from Holyrood and handed them to the secretary of state for Scotland. or that the company that wants to frack in Scotland is taking the Scottish government to court over it and may well win.
Old People - the no campaign in 2014 had a good propaganda machine going: your pension will be at risk if you vote to leave the UK, your savings will be jeopardised if Scotland doesn't have the pound sterling as its currency, etc. Have we done anything to persuade this group of people (who voted massively against independence) that it can be done and we can all benefit? Or do we follow the Facebook riff that these old folk will all be dead by the next referendum so no need to worry?
Optimism - yes, I know it's a weird thing to put in this post, but I really believe that we need some optimism for the future. The UK economy has been in a mess since 2008 and doesn't look like recovering any time soon. People have suffered, especially in the public sector where wages are about 15% lower now than they were. Brexit has dragged us down, with nothing but bluster coming out of the Brexit camp as far as I can see. Is the future for Scotland looking any better? If Brexit has taught us anything, it's that the negotiations to leave the UK will be tough. But do we have enough going for us to make it worthwhile? I think we do: our exports are holding firm; oil prices are doing well; the Scottish Government is not just handling austerity but planning for the future - thanks to the Greens, who continue to act as a left of centre spur on the SNP government.
A year ago, a unionist friend put up a comment on Facebook in which she mentioned that Quebec had 3 referendums before giving up on the idea of independence. She seemed to be settled in for the long haul - and pretty certain Scotland would come to its senses and eventually reject independence. So there's another plus: the complacency of unionists. That can only work to the advantage of Yes voters.
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